The Fallible Genius- January 18, 1998

Plan B

PARD (dummy)

7 5

K J 10

K Q 8 6

K 10 8

10 9 8

10 4

I more or less have two remaining continuations.

Play the 8 (or 10) and let lefty win. This line hopes for a heart or a club return (or a spade would be even better!). A diamond force would endplay me in dummy and I would have to play lefty for Q2 original to make 3.
Play the K. Next hook hearts and hope lefty started with Qxx so that I can pitch two diamonds and make 3. If lefty has Q2 original, he will ruff the third heart, cash a spade and then cash 2 top diamonds for down one.

Line 1 allows lefty more chances to screw up, so I think that is my best shot. In my analysis after the hand (I didn't come up with this reasoning at the table) lefty was very likely to have started with only 2 hearts. Using my original assumptions about the diamond suit, she started with 6 diamonds, 4 spades, at least 1 club and at least 2 hearts. That's at least 13 original cards, so she must have 4-2-6-1 distribution if she started with exactly 6 diamonds.

If I had only done this little bit of counting at the table, I might've avoided falling from grace after lefty won the spade and continued with the K, endplaying me in the dummy. For certain, the above counting analysis points right at cashing the K. However, I tried to cash the K, ruffed by lefty with her low trump!

Now comes the Q, yes yes.. let's get on with it.
Hey what's taking her so long?
I already pitched a low heart on the Q.
C'mon lady, cash the J and be done with me.
Back comes.. the 6! I must be dreaming!

PARD (dummy)

K J

Q 8 6

K 10

So far, they have two spade tricks, one heart trick and one diamond trick. They could've cashed another diamond for down one, but they didn't. As it is, I might still go down one. What should I do?

The Fallible Genius - a chronicle by Brad Bart
January 18, 1998