10 7 4
A J 9 5 2
A 8 5
Before jumping the gun and winning the A,
you should duck one round. You never know when a
defender will get impatient and lead a spade away from their
king prematurely. Perhaps clubs are really 6-2 (unlikely),
and you will sever the communications. Good technique dictates
that you duck at least one club, although that is not the focus
of this hand.|
Assuming the defenders don't give you a trick in spades, you have one spade trick, one heart, two diamonds and one club to start. To have any hope, you need to bring in the diamond suit for five winners. The good news is that if you fail to bring in the diamond suit, then the identical play in 3 would have brought you the same -50. This is comforting, but making 2NT for a top would be more comforting. To find the best play in the diamond suit, we should stop to do a little counting.
Opening Lead: K
A 8 5 4
A 8 6
K 8 7 3
Once that hurdle is jumped, lead a low spade up to the Q for the overtrick. Ducking a second club gives up on this possibility when the opponents switch to hearts at trick 3.
The only time you lose matchpoints on this line of play is when lefty had 3-4-3-3 distribution with the K. If this happens, then you are the unluckiest declarer alive.
Larry Meyer got the analysis right, but avoided the overtrick. The overtrick is required to beat the +130's in 3.
Excellent work gentlemen!