Solution to The Percentage Line- September 1998

Solution to The Percentage Line September 1998

Vul: Both Dlr: Pard Scoring: Matchpoints	PARD (dummy) K J 4 K 9 8 7 K J 7 2 6 4	No matter what you played from dummy to the first trick, righty won and shifted to the 5, right into the jaws of the tiger. If you played low to trick one, then you should be wondering why he overtook his partner's winning 10. He must have had seen a desperately needed shift, a stiff diamond. With this in mind, righty probably has ? ? A Q J x x x 5 A ? ? ?. He might have one less heart and one more club or spade, but you can be certain of the location of the A based on his bidding alone. The favourable diamond position is good news, because you stand to lose one or two spades (depending on how well you can guess the suit), one heart and up to two clubs (if spades break poorly). Your only concern on this hand is if righty manages to get a diamond ruff with a trump trick that he wasn't always entitled to. To ensure the minimum chance of lefty getting in, you must win the A immediately and not be lulled into taking the "free finesse" that righty has so nicely provided for you. Remember that this finesse can always be taken at a later time.

Contract: 3 Doubled Opening Lead: 10	YOU 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 A 4 K 8 7 3

To see what bad things can happen to you, suppose you win the

J at trick two. Continuing diamonds is pure folly, so you have three options remaining.

Lead spades yourself from dummy.
This might not be pretty. Suppose you lead the K from dummy. This could lose to the stiff A on your left. A club to the A and two more spades will leave you brutally down 2 because your diamond suit is blocked. A low spade could find a stiff Q with lefty for the same result. Blech.
Ruff a heart and then play spades from hand.
It is true that this isn't quite as awful as the first case, but suppose spades are 2-2 with lefty holding the Qx and suppose that you guess to play a small spade to the J. Righty wins the A and returns a heart for lefty to ruff. Now comes the diamond ruff. Down 1.
Play a club to hand and then play spades from hand.
Righty will duck the club and you will win your K, but if lefty has stiff A, then diamonds are getting ruffed twice, with righty reentering lefty's hand with a club honour. Not pretty.

Your percentage line is to win the

A, and play a spade towards the

J. Once trumps are dealt with, you can feel free to play on clubs and diamonds at your leisure. Who knows? If you guess the spades correctly, then you are likely to make 3

Sadly, there was no winner this month.

However, one submission deserves......

Honourable Mention

Roman Woroch (Vancouver, British Columbia)

The Percentage Line - a quiz show by Brad Bart.
Please send your comments to bbart@cs.sfu.ca