Solution to The Percentage Line­ August 1998


Vul: Both
Dlr: Righty
Scoring: Matchpoints


PARD (dummy)
S --
H 10 5
D K Q J 9 7 5 2
C K 10 9 4
If clubs are 2-2 and the diamond suit is reasonable, then you are cold by ruffing the opening lead, pulling 2 rounds of trumps and establishing diamonds, all while you still have a trump as an entry to dummy.

However, if clubs are 3-1 and the DA is with righty, then a second spade will tap dummy into oblivion and the hand will crumble into dust. Your play to trick 1 will affect the outcome of the hand, and it must be based on what you believe the spade position is. In this case, it is most reasonable to believe that lefty holds both top spades for his double, so pitching a heart will prevent dummy from being tapped more than once. (If you believe that righty has the SK, then ruffing trick one will accomplish the same goal.)

Contract: 5C Doubled
Opening Lead: SA
YOU
S Q 10 2
H A 6 4 2
D 4
C A Q J 8 3


Your percentage line is to duck the SA, win the continuation (i.e. the SQ if lefty continues with a low spade), cash two trumps and establish the diamonds. Dummy cannot be tapped twice, so you can win the return, pull trumps ending in dummy and cash all of the diamonds.

Well done!


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