Solution to The Percentage Line- May 1998

Solution to The Percentage Line May 1998

Vul: Both
Dlr: You
Scoring: IMPs

PARD (dummy)

3 2

K 6 5 3 2

6 4 3 2

4 3

This hand seems pretty straightforward. If trumps are no worse than 3-1, simply win the diamond, cash (in order) the

AK,

K and

AK, and the defense cannot prevent you from crossruffing for 4 more tricks.

It is clear that your contract is in jeopardy only if trumps divide 4-0. For 10 tricks, the club position must be favourable.

After winning the diamond, cash dummy's K and play low towards the K. If the A is on your left, then you are down; so, assume it is on your right. There are now several cases to consider, depending on which defender has the long trumps and whether RHO won the A or ducked it.

Contract: 4

Opening Lead:

YOU

A K 9 4

A 8 7 4

A K

K 8 2

LHO had 4 trumps and RHO won the A
You have a 100% line for 10 tricks now. Win whatever RHO returns and cash all of your sidesuit winners, but not the A. Crossruff everything in sight until LHO overruffs. Win the return, cash the A and keep crossruffing until LHO surrenders. He cannot keep you from getting your three ruffs. Note that if LHO ruffs in at trick 4, you should win whatever he returns and cash the A to reduce yourself to the same position as before.
RHO had 4 trumps and RHO won the A
RHO's best return is a trump, which you must win in hand. Your best play from here is to hope RHO started with 3-4-3-3 or 3-4-2-4 distribution. Cash the K, K and AK, and then ruff a spade in dummy. If RHO overruffs and cashes his long trump, then you are down. If this holds, however, then ruff a diamond in hand. Cross your fingers and ruff a club in the dummy. No overruff? Whew that was your tenth trick.
LHO had 4 trumps and RHO ducked the A
You are home. Cash the remaining sidesuit winners, as before, and go for a spade ruff and then a diamond ruff. If your diamond gets overruffed and a trump comes back, win the A and try for another spade ruff and diamond ruff. If he overruffs again, then you will be able to ruff a club in dummy for your tenth trick.
RHO had 4 trumps and RHO ducked the A
This is a tough situation. If you return a club, then RHO will win and play a trump back, reducing you to the tough case when he won the A in the first place. Is there anything better?
The only possibility is a line where you try to quickly crossruff 3 more tricks, just like in the previous case. Unfortunately, because the A is not in dummy, this line will fail, unless RHO started with four spades and at least three diamonds. Why? Well, suppose you cash all of the sidesuit winners, to ruff a spade in dummy and a diamond in hand. Everything is fine until you go for the second spade ruff which is overruffed by RHO. RHO returns a trump, and now you can't get back to dummy to enjoy the last diamond ruff.

In short, a 4-0 trump break on your left will work out miles better than a 4-0 trump break on your right.

Honourable Mention

Rashid Khan (Fredericton, New Brunswick)
June Pocock (Vancouver, British Columbia)
Dan Watson (Vancouver, British Columbia)

The Percentage Line - a quiz show by Brad Bart.
Please send your comments to bbart@cs.sfu.ca