Cannot Make


I never did catch up with her to give her my full analysis, but I am sure that she would have nonetheless been proud of me.

Suppose that I ruffed the opening lead, played the HA followed by the S4, ruffed by righty. Now, righty exits a low club to the CQ and CA. (Note that a heart return also works, but the defence is tricky.) If I pull 2 rounds of trumps first then I will have 3 more losers for down one. So any plausible line of play must involve setting up the spades before pulling trumps.

 PARD (dummy)
S K J 8 7 4
H A K 3 2
D -
C A J 9 6
LEFTY
S A 10 9 3 2
H -
D 10 7 6 2
C Q 10 4 3		 RIGHTY
S -
H J 8 6 4
D A K J 4 3
C K 8 7 2
ME
S Q 6 5
H Q 10 9 7 5
D Q 9 8 5
C 5

  1. Pull one round of trump and lead a spade to the SQ.
    1. If the defence lets me hold this trick then I am down one. The most I can get out of the hand is 1 spade trick, 5 hearts, 1 club and 2 diamond ruffs. (Try it!)
    2. Alternatively, lefty can win the SA and return the S10. If I cover, then I will get the same tricks that I would have got in (a); if I let the S10 win, then a diamond shift fatally taps the dummy.
  2. Play a spade to the SQ right away.
    Righty can ruff in and return the DA, tapping the dummy. Once in with the SA, lefty will continue diamonds to roast the last entry to the high spades. (Remember that righty still holds the HJ.)
The long and the short of it is that with properly timed defence, 4H will go down after this start.

Further Analysis


  1. It turns out that on this lie of the cards, 4H was cold if only I took a different start. Instead of trying to set up the spades, I could have played for 1 club trick, 4 diamond ruffs, 3 club ruffs and 2 hearts. This line requires 4-4 clubs and the HJ onside, however.
  2. It is hard to tell how 4D doubled will do. If my hand leads clubs and scores an immediate club ruff, then 4D doubled will probably make. On any reasonable defence, however, it looks like they have at least 2 club losers and 2 diamond losers. I would guess down 1.
The Fallible Genius - a chronicle by Brad Bart
February 9, 1998