A Matchpoint Play


4H by East
 
 
 
 
NORTH
S A 9 7 6 3 2
H K 4 2
D 5 2
C Q 4
WEST (dummy)
S K 8 5
H Q J 9 3
D A Q 10
C A 5 2
EAST
S Q 10 4
H A 10 7 6 5
D 9 6 4
C 9 7
SOUTH
S J
H 8
D K J 8 7 3
C K J 10 8 6 3

Suppose East is in 4H and South starts with the SJ and gets a spade ruff. Now he continues the D8. What's East going to play from dummy? The risk in finessing either diamond is that North might win and give South another spade ruff, ending at least down 2.

To see what the proper matchpoint play is, let's divide this up into cases:

  1. Suppose East calls the D10.
    Then East is 25% likely to make (if the DKJ are with South), but 75% likely to go down an extra trick* (if North has either diamond honour and gives South a second ruff).
  2. Suppose East calls the DQ.
    Then East is 50% likely to go down 1 (if South has the DK), but 50% likely to go down an extra trick* (if North has the DK and gives South a second ruff).
  3. Suppose East calls the DA.
    Then East is 50% likely to go down 1 (losing one spade, one ruff, one club and at least one diamond), but 50% likely to go down 2 (by misguessing the diamond suit).
At matchpoints, it is clear to put up the DA as the best percentage play to hold in the undertricks.

*  Perhaps even more. See "Further Analysis" below.


Further Analysis

  1. At IMP scoring, East should put in the D10 because it is her only legitimate play to make the contract. If the play loses then East knows she is going down at least one and so she should make an effort to hold in the undertricks.
  2. If, after South gets his first ruff, he continues clubs instead of diamonds, then East will be able to make 4H because she will have enough time to comfortably finesse twice in diamonds.
  3. Suppose East plays the D10 (or the DQ) from dummy and North wins the cheapest honour possible (i.e. the DJ (or the DK)) and then gives South his second ruff. If South now continues diamonds, East still has a problem. She could rise with the DA and try to guess trumps (resulting in down 3 or 4) or she could finesse her remaining honour (resulting in anything between down 2 or down 4, depending on who has the DK (or DJ) and who has the HK). These sorts of guesses are not much fun.

At the end of the night, I checked our score for this board.
We got a bottom.

I guess that'll teach me for disobeying the fundamental rule of preempting:
    "Once you've preempted, your auction is over."


The Fallible Genius - a chronicle by Brad Bart
January 30, 1998