4 by East | NORTH A 9 7 6 3 2 K 4 2 5 2 Q 4 | ||
WEST (dummy) K 8 5 Q J 9 3 A Q 10 A 5 2 |
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EAST Q 10 4 A 10 7 6 5 9 6 4 9 7 | |
SOUTH J 8 K J 8 7 3 K J 10 8 6 3 |
and South starts
with the
J and gets a spade ruff. Now
he continues the
8. What's
East going to play from dummy? The risk in finessing
either diamond is that North might win and
give South another spade ruff, ending at least down 2.To see what the proper matchpoint play is, let's divide this up into cases:
10.
KJ
are with South), but 75% likely to go down an extra trick*
(if North has either diamond honour and gives South a second ruff).
Q.
K), but 50% likely to
go down an extra trick*
(if North has the
K
and gives South a second ruff).
A.
A as the best percentage play
to hold in the undertricks.* Perhaps even more. See "Further Analysis" below.
10 because it is her only
legitimate play to make the contract. If the play
loses then East knows she is going down at least one
and so she should make an effort to hold in
the undertricks.
because she will
have enough time to comfortably finesse twice in
diamonds.
10
(or the
Q) from dummy and
North wins the cheapest honour possible (i.e.
the
J (or the
K)) and then gives
South his second ruff. If South now continues
diamonds, East still has a problem. She could
rise with the
A and try
to guess trumps (resulting in down 3 or 4) or
she could finesse her remaining honour
(resulting in anything between down 2 or down 4, depending
on who has the
K (or
J) and who has the
K). These sorts of
guesses are not much fun.
I guess that'll teach me for disobeying the
fundamental rule of preempting:
"Once you've
preempted, your auction is over."