A Matchpoint Play
4 by East
| NORTH
A 9 7 6 3 2
K 4 2
5 2
Q 4 |
WEST (dummy)
K 8 5
Q J 9 3
A Q 10
A 5 2 |
|
EAST
Q 10 4
A 10 7 6 5
9 6 4
9 7 |
|
| SOUTH
J
8
K J 8 7 3
K J 10 8 6 3 |
Suppose East is in 4 and South starts
with the J and gets a spade ruff. Now
he continues the 8. What's
East going to play from dummy? The risk in finessing
either diamond is that North might win and
give South another spade ruff, ending at least down 2.
To see what the proper matchpoint play is, let's divide
this up into cases:
- Suppose East calls the 10.
Then East is 25% likely to make (if the KJ
are with South), but 75% likely to go down an extra trick*
(if North has either diamond honour and gives South a second ruff).
- Suppose East calls the Q.
Then East is 50% likely to go down 1 (if South has
the K), but 50% likely to
go down an extra trick*
(if North has the K
and gives South a second ruff).
- Suppose East calls the A.
Then East is 50% likely to go down 1 (losing one spade, one ruff,
one club and at least one diamond), but 50% likely to
go down 2 (by misguessing the diamond suit).
At matchpoints, it is clear to put up the
A as the best percentage play
to hold in the undertricks.
* Perhaps even more. See "Further Analysis" below.
Further Analysis
- At IMP scoring, East should put in the
10 because it is her only
legitimate play to make the contract. If the play
loses then East knows she is going down at least one
and so she should make an effort to hold in
the undertricks.
- If, after South gets his first ruff, he continues clubs
instead of diamonds, then East will be able
to make 4 because she will
have enough time to comfortably finesse twice in
diamonds.
- Suppose East plays the 10
(or the Q) from dummy and
North wins the cheapest honour possible (i.e.
the J (or the
K)) and then gives
South his second ruff. If South now continues
diamonds, East still has a problem. She could
rise with the A and try
to guess trumps (resulting in down 3 or 4) or
she could finesse her remaining honour
(resulting in anything between down 2 or down 4, depending
on who has the K (or
J) and who has the
K). These sorts of
guesses are not much fun.
At the end of the night, I checked our score for this board.
We got a bottom.
I guess that'll teach me for disobeying the
fundamental rule of preempting:
"Once you've
preempted, your auction is over."
The Fallible Genius - a chronicle
by Brad Bart
January 30, 1998